Xabi Alonso, Dave Fallows & working in silence: 3 reasons for fans to have hope this summer
Fans have a right to be sceptical, but there is a some small hope
As I’m writing we’re in the last 10 days of June, and the only transfer activity at Chelsea this summer as of now has been the sale of Marc Cucurella to Real Madridv for £51m and Jimmy Jay-Morgan to West Brom for £4m. Its a key summer for Chelsea, with new manager Xabi Alonso installed and beginning official work soon (he’s already been working, in truth).
After a disastrous, embarrassing season where Chelsea finished 10th and didn’t even qualify for Europe, it’s absolutely vital new manager Alonso has a squad capable of comfortably finishing in the Champions League places (3rd or 4th ideally), and winning a domestic trophy.
At the same time, Chelsea have a lot of players we need to move on. In reality, its most likely too many for one window (at least 10-12 from the current squad plus others we’ve had out on loan). I believe we should be able to move them all on by the end of the summer 2027 window, but doing it one window is very tough.
In the past, Chelsea under Clearlake have done a lot of our business publicly, with lots of rumours, links and stories about our targets and transfer activity. But that’s not the case this summer. Rightly, in my view, they have decided to keep all their targets close to the chest, not even media sources are being told our targets or any progress on transfer activity until the transfers happen. More on this later.
The only exception to this silence seems to be Enzo Fernandez, but it appears the majority of the noise around him is coming from his agent or the Spanish / Real Madrid media, as he attempts to get his long awaited move to Los Blancos.
May fans are skeptical for the many reason (one of which I’ll tackle later), but I do think there are a couple of people, who give me some slender hope this window could be positive for Chelsea.
Firstly, our new manager, Xabi Alonso. An elite coach, a winner, a top tactician and man manager, with a great history in the game. He has been given a status at Chelsea alongside the Sporting Directors, so will have a key input into transfers. Some names we’ve seen come out and then be ruled out seem to be previous targets, maybe put out by certain individuals at the club to some sources, maybe even to put fans off the scent, but then immediately ruled out publicly by the club.
Alonso has a wealth of football knowledge and tactical knowhow, and a huge history in the game. He will have his own idea of profiles, and maybe even names, and his own views on players recommended by scouts, which could, potentially, help us filter off some players our Sporting Directors seem to get fascinated by, and get higher quality targets.
Then of course, Alonso brings the pull of playing for one of the greatest midfielders of his generation, a legend of the game, with aura and presence, and who has already proven himself as an elite tactician and winning coach. This may not work in all cases, but I think it will definitely help with certain targets.
My second reason for confidence, David Fallows. This is the data analyst / recruitment guru we hired out of Liverpool. He is a best in class operator, who’s helped build multiple winning squads at big clubs. His expertise is in data analysis. He knows what data to look at, and how to analyse it correctly, something we’ve clearly not done well up to now. This includes information on players mentality, character and work ethic.
For example, at Liverpool, scouts often looked at how often players tracked back and fought for the ball, their body language when the game wasn’t going well, and other small but important bits of data when deciding who to sign, and he would have been part of that process. He will ensure we don’t end up with any more players with questionable mentality or attitude. I think, for example, Garnacho would not have been signed if Fallows was at the club last summer.
Another thing I think is in our favour, is operating in silence. Although it’s annoying at times, I much prefer it. I dislike us doing our business in public. I don’t want constant stories about targets we don’t get, and allowing other clubs to slip in under the radar to gazump us. Do it privately, quietly, only make it public when it’s as good as done, close down false rumours. And if we do miss out - which could happen as we don’t have Europe, to be honest - fans will probably never officially know, and we don’t look completely embarrassed publicly as we have in the past. Keeping it quiet avoids gossip and lessens the risk of other clubs poaching our targets, and so far not much is leaking out. I think this is a positive development, and a small sign of lessons learned. I actually believe it will help us have a better summer.
The major concern I have should be obvious. The two lead Sporting Directors, Paul Winstanley and Laurence Stewart. These are the two people who built the squad who finished 10th with our worst run for over 30 years, and chose and hired Liam Rosenior to manage them. Most fans don’t have much faith, if any at all, in their ability to negotiate elite level signings or persuade players to play for us, and that lack of faith is very well founded. They are responsible more than anyone for the mess of the season just gone, due to their power over recruitment and the Rosenior appointment.
I would genuinely love to know what they have they done to earn the right to rebuild their own mess. They’ve not shown anywhere near the standard Chelsea fans expect in terms of player or even manager recruitment (Alonso apart). Although they did help sign Cole Palmer, Joao Pedro, Estevao Willian, Geovany Quenda, Moises Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Mike Penders and Jarrol Hato, the fact is their hit rate isn’t anywhere near good enough for an elite club, and in my view, they really shouldn’t be overseeing incomings this summer.
The real area Winstanley and Stewart are strong in, is player sales. They have brought in a gross of £805m in player sales in the last 3 years (including the sales of Cucurella and Jay-Morgan), and £419m in terms of player disposal, the book profit on players. Of the players they signed, from January 2023 onwards, we’ve not actually made a book loss, which, admittedly, is good work, and something we’ll need to continue this summer with the number of players we need to move on.
My hope against all hope is that Xabi Alonso and Dave Fallows have a positive impact on the selection of our transfer targets and in persuading players to join us. I also hope we can see more of the Cole Palmer, Moises Caicedo, Joao Pedro, Jarrol Hato, Estevao Willian, Geovany Quenda quality of signings from the Sporting Directors, and literally none of the Garnacho, Delap, Tosin, Badiashile, Disasi or Gittens types.
In terms of the delay in news on transfers, I’m not currently worried. A lot of players are at the World Cup and have their main focus there for now. Only about 5 PL clubs so far have done any business. Most clubs aren’t signing players right now and it looks like the majority of business will ramp up in late June and into July. Indeed, the transfer window has only just opened. Plus, we need to clear the logjam in our squad, we have over 30 players with all those already signed and coming back from loan. We need to shift some of these players to create space for new signings, and also of course to ensure we’re financially compliant.
If we get to mid July and we’re exactly where we are now, then I will be much more concerned. But I do think in that time we’ll see some outgoings, and potentially one or two incomings (no inside info, just my opinion). The job at hand this summer is to get rid of at least half of the deadwood and bring in 3-4 players to immediately improve us so we have squad capable of finishing 3rd or 4th comfortably and winning a trophy, With only one game a week, a smaller squad of about 21 first teamers plus Cobham players will work fine. There’s a lot of work to do, but we currently have time to do it.
Arguably the most important signing has already been made: Xabi Alonso. A world class coach and a winner, who will have a refreshed and motivated Cole Palmer, Joao Pedro, Estevao Willian and Levi Colwill available to him, as well as players like Reece James, Moises Caicedo, Jarrol Hato and talents like Andrey Santos, Geovany Quenda, Josh Achempong (hopefully), Valentin Barco and Mike Penders all already at the club, and steady eddies like Trevoh Chalobah and even Pedro Neto to fill out the squad, with Cobham talents like Jesse Derry also available to him.
That’s a solid core to build around. Top coaches make players better, and with one game a week Alonso can get his ideas across and players will be fresher. Yes, we need 3-4 starting level players, but we’re not starting from scratch, and just having Alonso to coach the squad will improve us in my view.
So yes, there’s some justifiable anxiety about this summer window, but there’s also reasons to be positive. The World Cup has given us a nice distraction from Chelsea and maybe will allow everyone to mentally and emotionally move on from last season and focus on the present and future under Xabi Alonso. It was great work appointing him as our manager, its now important to give him the tools to do his job.
Just don’t mess it up again, Chelsea.
The Score