Return to the top or false dawn?

Just how talented are this squad & where are we in the process

After two games of the season (when writing before the Wolves game), many Chelsea fans have already resigned themselves to another long season. In reality, right now, Chelsea are not perceived or in reality a serious threat to the Manchester City’s of this world. Many Chelsea fans are frustrated, and tired of waiting for a competitive Chelsea team.

You’d say “well its only been two years since the takeover”, or “this is all Clearlake’s fault”, but in my view, Chelsea have not consistently been an elite team since 2017, the last time Chelsea challenged for the Premier League title, and the last time we won it, under Antonio Conte. 

Since then there’s been a steady decline. We’ve had moments, 3 major trophies, plus the European SuperCup and Club World Cup. But we’ve lost 6 domestic finals in a row, a record for an English club, and finished an average of 25-30 points behind the champions every season. 

Believe it or not, between 2017 and the takeover in June 2022 we actually spent as much as Manchester City on players. Unfortunately, we spent it on players like Tiémoué Bakayoko, Davide Zappacosta, Danny Drinkwater, Kepa Arizzabalaga, Alvaro Morata, Timo Werner, Emerson Palmieri, Ross Barkley, and Romelu Lukaku who combined cost the club £401m. 

Since the takeover in June 2022, Chelsea have spent a further £1.2 billion on players, at time of writing the net spend since the takeover is around £740m, in two years and five transfer windows. In that time, Chelsea have not won a trophy and lost their sixth domestic final in a row.

Most of the signings from that first summer, I’m sure even the club now would admit, didn’t really work. Kalidou Koulibaly, Pierre Emerick-Aubamayang, Denis Zakaria were all gone after a year. Raheem Sterling is now on the verge of leaving the club. The two who still look to have a future at the club are Wesley Fofana and Marc Cucurella. Fofana is a top CB though been injured a lot of his time here. Cucurella is now beginning to look a successful transfer, having been the best LB at Euro 2024, and having a mini resurgence in this calendar year.

The new ownership was unfortunate in the timing of the takeover, which was only formalised around the day the summer 2022 window started. They had no time to build a structure or make plans for the summer window beforehand, and were thrust straight into it, with no sporting director in place. It was always likely that the summer 2022 window would be hit and miss. 

The signings made since Jan 2023 however, there is less excuse. By then we had sporting directors and scouts in place and had had time to make plans. However, most signings made then are still currently employed by the club, though question marks still hang over some of them. However the squad assembled in January and summer 2023, one of the youngest, inexperienced squads in PL history, finished 6th last season, only 5 points off the top 4, and reached a cup final. For much of the season, they were the fourth best team in the PL on points won.

I’ve read many articles and seen many many tweets stating, quite simply, that the squad we have now, assembled in the last 4 transfer windows, aren’t of the level required by Chelsea and never will be. Indeed I’ve heard it said our standards for individual players have slipped, so we’re rating players higher than we should, out of sheer desperation or a lack of success.

I don’t agree with this assessment.

My argument is simply this. We have signed a lot of players aged 23 or under. Some of whom have little experience in the Premier League, either as they have come from abroad, or because they are so young, they’ve only played a season in the league. Footballers are no longer men at 20-22 anymore, the culture of the game has changed somewhat. 

Now I go back to the 2001/2002 season. In the squad that season, we had a 21 year old John Terry, a 22 year old Frank Lampard just signed for £11m, 21 year old William Gallas, just signed for £6.6m, and 23 year old Eidur Gudjohnsen. All would end up becoming serial winners at Chelsea. Eidur would have a breakout season, scoring 22 PL goals.

However, in the 2001/02 season, neither Terry, Lampard or Gallas would perform at world class level. They all showed great potential that season, but all made mistakes, none performed at the level we subsequently came to expect from them. Lampard scored 8 goals in 53 games. Terry and Gallas were both out of the side at various points. 

The team that season finished 6th in the league, with 64 points. They lost the FA cup final and reached the league cup semi final where we lost to Spurs. They had a tough run of league form September to late November, where they picked up.

Last season, with an even younger team, Chelsea finished 6th, with 63 points. They lost the league cup final and reached the FA cup semi final. It was arguably an identical season to the one 23 years ago. And this was with the likes of Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Christopher Nkunku and Wesley Fofana missing for most of the season.

 I think the inflated fees paid for the likes of Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez, put insane expectations on them. Both were relatively new to the Premier League when they joined - Caicedo had 18 months experience of the PL, Enzo had none. Caicedo was 21, and Enzo just 22. The same age and the likes of JT, Lampard and Gallas in 2001/02.

Now I’m not comparing them directly as players, that would be foolish. However, the point I’m making, is these players will not, despite their fees, be performing at a consistently high level yet. That was never the expectation for either of them. The whole point of buying them at a young age, is that they would develop and mature at Chelsea, and reach their prime here, hopefully within the next 2 seasons.

Romeo Lavia is just 20, nowhere near his prime as yet. He and Cole Palmer had the benefit of being schooled at the Man City academy (for a year under our head coach Enzo Maresca) which seems to deliver PL ready players so effectively, you wonder why they keep selling them. That seems to have sped up their development, so both looked at home relatively quickly. 

The realistic expectation last season was not to be PL title contenders, and realistically, not to make top 4, in particular given our injuries. That is a long term ambition, but in the short term expectations will be lower. Even so, had we beaten Aston Villa at home instead of lost 2-0, the points switch over would have seen us finish 4th in the PL and achieve Champions League football. 

The idea this is a poor squad lacking any talent or potential, was pretty much rubbished by our eventual end to the season. The table never lies and we were the 6th best team over 38 games, 3 points behind 5th, and 5 points off the top 4. Indeed since Gameweek 8 last season,  we were the 4th best team in the Premier League in terms of points. Again, the idea this squad is poor and lacks talent, is misleading and factually inaccurate, and the results prove it. 

Also a myth is the idea they lack spirit or character. The squad came from behind to win 5 times in the Premier League last season, including against Manchester United. There was a togetherness in the squad last year and the toxic player power had noticeably disappeared. Given we have largely the same group this year, you’d expect this to continue.

The sporting directors and ownership are hoping this is a squad which develops and improves season upon season as they gain more experience, good coaching and reach their prime years. That’s part of the strategy.

Its a long term approach not designed to deliver instant success, but deliver long term sustained success, with a younger generation with the likes of Estevao Willian (who just was called up by Brazil men's team at 17),  Kendry Paez (already an international at 17), Andrey Santos (another full international at 20), Lesley Ugochukwu and Aaron Anselmo (being considered for an international call up at 19), coming in behind them in the next year or so.

It is a bold and risky strategy, with no guarantee of success. The goal being to deliver sustainable success at the elite level without needing to pay ridiculous superstar wages or transfer fees over the long term. I believe in this strategy and I have confidence it will work, though I understand others might be more skeptical, especially given results in the first two years of the project. 

The arguments this squad has no talent or character were proved wrong last season. We’ve added to the squad this summer and injured players have returned. Christopher Nkunku, Romeo Lavia and Wesley Fofana are essentially new signings, and all will improve the quality of the team, as will Reece James when he returns.

There’s a good chance we will add a recognized number 9 to deliver goals. Finally, the young talent in the squad all has another year's experience and development under their belt.

It will take time to learn the tactical set up and philosophy of new head coach Enzo Maresca and for it to become second nature, but the players have the technical ability and talent to adapt to it relatively quickly.

Obviously, there is still the risk some players we’ve invested in won’t work out - the jury is still out on some of these players, and many haven’t delivered consistently yet, which represents the risk inherent in the strategy. But there are signs the talent is there and that this squad have some character.

As ever, its our job to back the players wearing blue, and support them as they try to deliver for the club. Whatever the doom-mongers say, the squad is immensely talented, and there ARE several promising signs for the future.

The Score