No Europe is a possibility, so what happens then?

Its not easy, but its also not doomsday

So there’s a good chance we don’t even play in Europe next season now. Needless to say, this is an utter shambles all round. No one at the club escapes blame for this, there’s no victims here. Even in the first half of the season, we only won 8 PL games out of 19, and in December we won one game in 9. The rot was setting in even before the managerial change.

Players, and frankly a head coach, who believed their own hype after the Club World Cup, poor recruitment and squad building, the fatigue of 64 games last season, the season ending in July with a very short break and pre-season, and awful appointment of Liam Rosenior all combining to produce this mess of a season. Even given those circumstances, we should have been able to achieve 5th place, and its an utter disgrace we’ve failed to do so.

People are obviously worried about the finances. Its worth remembering this big debt figure is not held by the club or even BlueCo, but by their holding company. This debt has been there for a couple of years. It didn’t hinder our spending last summer.

The UEFA settlement is a factor here. Nizaar Kinsella at the BBC reported this concerning this settlement:

“The regulations of our settlement stipulate Chelsea cannot record losses of more than £52.2m once certain Uefa allowances are applied, when filing their accounts at the end of June. Any loss beyond that threshold would result in a fine of up to £17.4m, while losses exceeding £69.7m would trigger a one‑season ban from European competition, provided they qualify within three seasons following the breach.”

Financial figures for this season from June 2025-May 2026 (the financial year for football clubs), will be released in 2027. However a bit of maths from figures we already know mean this seasons figures look good. If you add together the PL money (£150m approx), Club World Cup money (£60m at least), Champions League money (£80m was reported) plus player sales of £290m gross last summer, our Nike contract for £60m per year, you have revenues of £640m without the the front of shirt, sleeve or training kit sponsorship or match-day revenue (£85m on last years figures with Conference League football). That’s £245m more than last year’s figures already, and those figures from last year, we’re told, contained a lot of one off settlements/payments too.

So the 25/26 revenues will be much bigger and stronger than last year, with less chance of a loss, certainly within the boundaries we need to comply with. Its the 26/27 revenues which will be impacted by not making Champions League, or Europe at all.

But how do we cope without Champions League money and remain compliant?

In relation to the wage bill, its now been well reported all Chelsea players have a contractual clause which sees their base wages go down 20% without European football - which just makes their downing tools more staggering as it costs them money.

Our wage bill was £359m in the club accounts for 2024/2025. If you take that as a guide, a 20% cut would save Chelsea approximately £72m from the wage bill next season (even if we make Europa League or Conference League, as he clause is about Champions League football). Given the financial benefit of Champions League football was £80m this season, as confirmed a few weeks ago, then taking into account match-day losses too - comparing the last year without Europe to last year, it seems its about £16m - the financial cost of not making the Champions League is reduced to about £24m.

According to the reliable Lu Class, there’s a strong chance our current front of shirt sponsor continues beyond this season. You’d expect a deal worth at least £40-50m per year even without European football, which is at least £20-30m more than this seasons’ FOS income. Adding it all up, overall the short term cost of being outside of the Champions League can be mitigated.

The other factor is we have a LOT of players we can sell, before we even get to the likes of Enzo Fernandez or Marc Cucurella, who’d bring in £130-150m on their own.

Just off the top of my head: Filip Jorgensen, Tosin Adarabioyo, Benoit Badiashile, one of Wesley Fofana/Trevoh Chalobah, Axel Disasi, Alejandro Garnacho, Liam Delap, Marc Guiu and David Datro Fofana, are all players who will be available. All on low base salaries and most are still relatively young, so easy to sell.

There’s a good chance we can also make a book profit or at least break even on most of them too given the amortisation, and those players alone could raise up to £200m. If you add the likes of Enzo Fernandez and Marc Cucurella, you’re talking £300m at least, if not more.

Obviously, all the money from player sales - something we’ve actually done well recently - adds to the revenue of the club, and gives us leeway to invest in the squad.

The UEFA settlement means we have to keep within the wage structure we had this year, though I’m not sure if this applies if we’re not in UEFA competition. However I think we’d want to generally remain compliant with the settlement anyway, and the wage structure will remain in place. I think even without the settlement, its logical that every addition should require one going out. There’s up to 8 players from this season’s squad in that list of players above, meaning we can replace 8 players.

The other rule of the settlement is we have to spend only as much as we bring in. But without Europe at all, there may be some flexibility in this. The likes of Geovany Quenda and Valentin Barco, possibly even Emanuel Emegha, count as new signings under this rule, though if they’re loaned the wages won’t count towards it, as the squad cost ratio only applies to players registered in the squad. Players currently on loan like Mike Penders and even Nicolas Jackson, only count on the squad cost ratio, in relation to their wages.

So there’s definitely room for about 5-6 signings costing around £200-250m this summer on top of Quenda, Emegha and Barco. This is where we might have to be smart and bring Nicolas Jackson back into the squad for a year (not ideal I know), instead of signing a new striker, because the CBs, CM and wide attackers will need to be the focus.

We’ll have to be smart, but there’s good deals to be had out there for PL proven players. Regardless of a lack of Europe, Chelsea are still a big club, even though the bigger targets may go elsewhere there’s still some targets we should be able to get.

One game a week should mean less fatigue and injuries in the squad, and allow us to play our strongest team in most games. Levi Colwill and Reece James - both top class players, Cobham born and bred, who love the club and are leaders in the side - will both be back and be able to start most games. I would say in that situation, with a good manager, you could be pretty confident of a Champions League place and a good domestic cup run.

Chelsea still have a good core. Right now, as I said earlier a toxic cocktail of way too many games in the last two seasons, causing mental and physical fatigue, plus injuries, low confidence, poor coaching, poor squad building so players can’t rest and poor mentality has led to this awful run of form.

The likes of Cole Palmer will probably get the summer off now, its hard to see him going to the World Cup based on current form and the form of others in his position. But I think long term that might help him. He needs a break, mentally and physically. Missing out on the World Cup might combined with a good break and hunger to get Chelsea back successful, could be exactly what he needs to start firing again.

The squad having a proper break, a full pre-season and one game a week, I suspect, will see an improvement in overall energy levels, leaving the squad fresher - much like we’ve seen from Man Utd since January. A new manager hopefully brings new confidence, a fresh approach and feeling of a new start for many too.

I don’t have much faith that the Sporting Directors will face the deserved consequences for this shambles if I’m honest. Them overseeing transfers wouldn’t fill me with much optimism right now. I’d love to be proved wrong.

However, Behdad Eghbali and Clearlake need Chelsea to be successful on the pitch, so they know they have to get this summer right. They have to get the right level of manager and sign the players who are good enough, proven with the right mentality, who can deliver quickly. After this shambolic season, Clearlake investors will be sure to demand changes which can bring success and raise revenue. In short, the owners simply can’t mess this up anymore.

Even without European football, all is not lost. Long term it may be a blessing in disguise. One game a week, the right manager and right recruitment will give us a good chance to have a successful season. With the full focus on the Premier League and ensuring we qualify for the Champions League, and still with a decent chance of winning a domestic cup. That, hopefully with lessons learned, can be the foundation for the long term and more sustained success, even if that’s regular top 4 football and a few cups for a few years before we really go for the big trophies again in due course.

Of course though, as we all know, it’s natural to be skeptical about this.

I think every Chelsea fan, including me, has doubts about whether they can deliver the right managerial appointment or signings. The only evidence fans will accept now is actions. There’s no blind optimism from me here, this is a crucial summer.

We can only hope they’ve finally learned their lessons and now deliver on their promises. The coming months will tell us if they have.

The Score