Maresca exposed, Maresca out, other fanciful notions

We're in a bad run but the data suggests its not a crisis...yet

Obviously results haven’t been good recently, and many are frustrated, including myself. Its disappointing to drop points for four games in a row.

What’s been frustrating for me, is at least two of those games we should have won, and another we should have drawn. The chances have been there in at least 3 of those games, to get a draw or win. We’ve missed so many good chances in the last few games which would have changed the result, not to mention some abysmal refereeing which went against us.

But frustration I’ve seen others has hinted at something deeper going wrong, that we’re in crisis and head coach Enzo Maresca is messing up completely, which is what I want to address today.

To my mind, there’s a few myths and ridiculous comments I’m seeing on social media right now, to the point where I’m not really reading social media apart from transfer stories for the moment. Some are blaming the tactical set up under Maresca, and that he’s been “exposed” or “found out”. Others even want him replaced, either now or in the summer.

I genuinely think, respectfully, that these notions go way too far and aren’t an accurate reflection of whats really happening.

So lets address all of this.

First, the tactical stuff. People think we’ve been found out tactically, Maresca only has one tactic, and we’re suddenly not scoring goals because of that. Well, I presented some data in an article the other day to show we were still creating chances, having shots, and having as many touches in the opposition box as we have all season.

The Crystal Palace game was yet another example of this.

15 shots

1 on target

36 touches in the opposition box

1 big chance created (3 per game is pretty normal).

These are similar stats in these particular metrics that we got when winning games by big scorelines earlier in the season. There were some chances we had against Crystal Palace, which to me, a top side nearly always scores.

Jackson had a couple, Cole Palmer even missed one. Crystal Palace didn’t stop us from creating chances whatsoever, especially in the first half. Even in the second half we had good chances. If Maresca’s system was being found out, they’d have nullified us altogether, and that wasn’t the case. We should have been 2 or even 3 up and out of sight before they ever got close to scoring.

I’ve not seen any side really stop us creating chances this season and the data backs this up.

If we were being “found out” or “exposed” tactically, we’d not be creating chances. The system is working from an attacking perspective, we’re creating enough good quality chances to score at least 2, maybe 3 goals every game. That’s been happening even in this poor run. What we’re not doing in the last few games is being as clinical enough in front of goal as we were before, and we’re also being too sloppy in defence.

If we take the chances we should, I think we win against Palace, and probably get a draw against Fulham and maybe even against Ipswich. That would give us 4 more points and no one is concerned.

Another thing people are complaining out is that the argument for fatigue thing is a lie or more concerning than it actually is, because they say we’ve had two teams all season so players shouldn’t be tired. That’s another myth. The fatigue thing is completely understandable when you look at the facts.

Having played 12 PL games in total up to the end of November (3 per month), Chelsea then played 8 PL games in 35 days since December 1st up to and including the Crystal Palace game.

Combined with injuries, that’s meant most of our key players have played a lot of games in a short space of time - something that’s not really happened much with this squad, even last season. As a result, several key players are exhausted, so we've been tiring in the second half of games recently. It’s no surprise 3 of the goals we’ve conceded in the last 4 games came in the last 10 minutes or extra time.

I don’t see us struggling to create chances, or struggling to find opportunities to score, in almost any game recently. I see us missing clear cut chances way too often.

We now have a long break before our next Premier League game - 10 days between games. Our first team players need 2-3 days off. Rest, recharge, clear heads and then come back ready to prepare for the next PL game. Enzo Maresca now also has a clear week to work with the players and reflect on where he’s gone wrong recently, and make changes.

Unlike others I don't see this as a crisis. It’s a rough patch caused by a combination of factors - fixture congestion, fatigue, injuries and a lack of quality depth in some key positions (which is on the sporting directors).

I really don’t like this jump to scapegoat head coach Enzo Maresca either. It seems many of our fans still believe in the quick fix, magic bullet theory of managers, and think scapegoating the manager is always the answer. I’ll say again, look at all the most successful sides in recent years, they all have stability at manager level.

I also know there’s a section of fans who never wanted Maresca, who were scared he’d be another Maurizio Sarri. A few of them seem to be almost rejoicing in how right they were based on 4 games, when the other 26 games or so they’ve been proven wrong. They will just never be convinced by this style of football in my view, whoever is in charge.

Despite the myth making and excuses for good runs which happen after some bad results, Enzo has used a variety of tactical setups this season. In fact he used a different one against Crystal Palace, with a regular back 4 - and it should have paid off, if our players could finish.

He’s also made a huge effort to connect with the fanbase, going to fans after games, and has way more charisma than Sarri ever had. People just make these lazy comparisons because of a vaguely similar style of football which some fans seem to think doesn’t belong at Chelsea. Some fans want us to play a style of play which is now archaic, stuck 20-30 years ago, and top teams and top players don’t really play now.

Indeed I’m seeing some fans openly say they want Maresca gone either next month or in the summer, based solely on the last 4 games. It's genuinely ridiculous, I really don’t understand that thinking at all. Its either agenda driven or totally reactionary.

I have confidence in the players. Once the likes of Palmer, Caicedo, Levi, Cucurella, Jackson and Enzo Fernandez have had a proper break, and we get Romeo Lavia back, I expect us to get back to winning ways relatively soon.

We can’t keep on changing managers every time we have a little blip, there’s no manager out there who wouldn’t have a blip. People are living in fantasy land if they think otherwise. Changing managers is not even a conversation I can take seriously at this point. Could that change? Unlikely - only in VERY extreme circumstances, which I don’t think will happen.

Yes, I agree with those who say Enzo needs to be bolder in his substitutions, like he was up until December. That’s the one area I’m genuinely confused by with him and I believe he warrants some criticism. I’m not denying he’s made some mistakes, he clearly has. But wanting him out? That’s way too far.

My point is this isn’t some big deep crisis - yet. If we keep on creating chances as we are, at some point we’ll start scoring them again, and winning games. It's when we stop creating chances at all that we’re in trouble, and the data shows clearly that’s not happened yet.

As I said earlier, our first team can now have a proper break and rest, and Maresca can have time with the players. We have a relatively easy FA Cup game at home to help us get back into form, and then, hopefully, we can get ourselves out of this rut.

There are things to be genuinely concerned about, and decisions to be made, but it's not crisis mode at Chelsea, not yet.

The Score