In an age of inflated transfer fees, Chelsea need to be smart in the market

Transfer fees are getting out of control

This week I saw a report saying Chelsea-linked Adam Wharton is valued by Crystal Palace at £100m or more, basically Declan Rice and Enzo Fernandez money.

Whilst in one sense this potentially helps us in terms of possibly getting more money from the potential sale of Enzo Fernandez, likely to Real Madrid, its one other issue this raises which brings more concern.

£100m+ for Adam Wharton is very clearly overpriced, because in truth, he is a £60-70m player. £100m+ should be reserved only for truly elite, world class players. Some stories have valued Everton winger Iliman Ndiyaye at £100m too. Again, way too much for a player like him, whose realistic value is about £50-60m. Player values are rocketing. It seems more like £120m is the minimum it takes for an established elite player now. Some say buying or selling clubs decide value, but ultimately, if the market is like this, it makes it way more difficult to get elite talent into your football club, not just for Chelsea, but for some other big clubs too.

This brings me to Chelsea. Even with Champions League football, those kind of prices for those kind of players makes the market tough. Without Champions League football and the money which goes with it, it makes it exceptionally difficult. The harsh reality is, without Roman Abramovich - who was generous to Chelsea in subsidising big fees and wages, but whose way was never sustainable long term - we can’t pay those fees for players, and we certainly can’t pay 300k per week base salaries. If we do that for even one player, every player will begin demanding it and you end up adding £100m+ to your annual wage bill overnight.

To be able to afford all that, we’d need to make £700-800m revenues per year every year, even without Champions League money.

This should explain why we invest so much in young talent, and have a wage structure. It’s a way to get elite talents without paying the extortionate fees or wages and build an elite side. The bonus structure ensures players get increased salaries and bonuses for more success, but these have to be earned. The young talent who don’t make it will be sold off for profits, and the ones who do stay a long time, with maybe one or two leaving every so often. Chelsea currently need player sales to generate big revenues, and up to this summer we’ve £750m in sales in total. £294m of that was last summer, and we’ll likely make well over £200m this summer, especially if we sell Enzo Fernandez and Marc Cucurella - which will then help to sign at least 2-3 starters.

Most fans agree we need a balance of some more established, proven talent to go with our young stars like Estevao Willian, Cole Palmer and Levi Colwill, and hopefully we see that happen this summer. That’s been a big flaw of the ownership so far and hopefully it gets rectified. But Chelsea, even with CL football, will need to maintain a good level of player sales and invest in some young talent to remain competitive. We’ll need to make smart signings more than superstar signings, because those galactico signings are getting to £150-200m levels which is nigh on impossible to achieve.

The finances are another reason for wanting a bigger stadium. Extra matchday revenue and sponsorships / commercial deals could raise annual revenue by at least £100m a year or even more, which would seriously help us financially. For example, £100m a year basically pays the amortised costs for 4 players signed for £75m on £10m a year (200k per week). Or one £150m signing and two £75m signings. It would change a lot for the club.

Smart signings aren’t always experienced players who aren’t superstars either. Cole Palmer for £42m, Estevao for £29m, Jarrol Hato for £38m, Mike Penders for £17m, Geovany Quenda for £40m, even Nicolas Jackson for £32m are, to me, smart signings. Because I think all of those are already valued much higher than what we paid, and have either been first team regulars who have contributed to trophy wins and top 4, or they have a good chance of being first team regulars for Chelsea in future. Andrey Santos and Valentin Barco have the potential to be smart signings too.

What we’ve not done much in recent years, is sign more established players who are smart signings. Players we’ve signed for peanuts who’ve contributed to our success. Examples from the past include like Olivier Giroud, Thiago Silva and of course, the legendary Cesar Azpilcueta, who retired from playing last month.

This summer some examples of that would be Bayer Leverkusen LWB Alejandro Grimaldo, Nathan Ake and John Stones from Man City, Sunderland midfielder Granit Xhaka or Patrick Schick, also from Leverkusen. There’s others out there too - the aforementioned Thiago Silva might be available on a free for a player/coach role, and to me would make a lot of sense.

With next season consisting largely of only one game a week, far less rotation will be needed. So the priority is to get a squad who can get Champions League football and hopefully win one of the domestic cups. With less games, it would work to have a core squad of 21 players who can start games, and have 4 players, including the third choice keeper, from Cobham who can be part of the squad in cup games especially (though I’d include Jesse Derry in the main 21).

If we can add 3 starters in key positions (and this is still a big IF considering who is negotiating for players), then add a combination of what we have (Jackson, Quenda, Penders, Barco) and Cobham players like Jesse Derry, with the likes of Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, Estevao, and Levi Colwill all having a full summer off and one game a week, add the Xabi Alonso factor, and I think we’ll be fine for top 3 or 4 next season. Then next summer, hopefully with CL football, CL money and positive momentum behind Alonso’s Chelsea, you really go big to take the squad up a level.

Even then, there would be some player sales to bring in revenue, and again, with prices as they are we may still have to be relatively smart. We’d have a lot more leeway, granted, but we still should and hopefully would not be spending £106m for an Adam Wharton, and superstars will still be tough to sign.

This is our reality right now, we don’t have a nation state funding us with dodgy sponsorships, so we have to generate our own money. So to do that, especially without CL football, or a big stadium, we need to be relatively smart in the market, sell well, and get regular CL football. That might mean not always signing the glamour names, but focussing on the right profiles, in terms of talent, position, mentality and character, to support Xabi Alonso as he builds his Chelsea team. Then hopefully, in time, we might be able to get Chelsea back where we belong.

The Score