Where Are The Goals Coming From (& Where Will We Finish?)
A follow up to Score's September article to see where Chelsea are now, and where we might finish
So back in August I wrote an article called “So Where Are The Goals Coming From?” where I predicted how many goals Chelsea would score, how many certain individuals would score and how many points Chelsea would have after 20 PL games.
Well we just played our 20th PL game against Luton, winning 3-2. So now it seems a good time to revisit those predictions and see where we are. The stats below are specifically for goals after 20 PL games, but given we’ve only played 4 other games I’ve made it all comps
Raheem Sterling:
Prediction (after 20 PL games): 8 goals & 6 assists
Actual: 6 goals & 5 assists.
Nicolas Jackson:
Prediction: 7 goals & 2 assists.
Actual: 8 goals & 2 assists.
Cole Palmer:
Prediction: 6 goals (didn’t predict assists)
Reality: 8 goals & 6 assists
Armando Broja:
Prediction: 4 goals
Reality: 1 goal
Midfield (combined):
Prediction: 5 goals
Reality: 4 goals
Defence (combined):
Prediction: 5 goals
Reality: 4 goals
So when you look at the above stats, I underestimated Cole Palmer’s influence, was pretty accurate with Nicolas Jackson, the midfield and the defence, and overestimated Armando Broja’s goal tally.
One thing I didn’t factor in was Christopher Nknuku returning from injury so soon, and he’s got himself a goal in his one start and two sub appearances so far, as well as a pre-assist. I also didn’t factor in Mykhailo Mudryk scoring 4 goals and Noni Madueke getting 3 goals, many of them key goals too. So that was an extra bonus.
In total, Chelsea have scored 40 goals in all competitions this season, in 24 games, which is 1.6 goals per game.
Last season, we scored 50 goals in 50 games in all competitions, so our goals per game ratio has increased by ratio of 0.6. That seems small, but that would take us to 83 goals in 50 games, up by 33 from last season.
As we all know, one massive problem problem this season is defending, only 6 clean sheets in 24 games. If we fixed our defence, chances are we’d be higher in the table right now.
Now my prediction in terms of points - I made a worse case, medium case, and best case prediction for the 16 PL games from 5 Sept to Dec 30, which were taken after our first four games when we were on four points:
Worst case: Win 7, draw 4 and lose 5 of the next 16 PL games up to match-day 20. We enter game week 21 on 29 points - which last season, would have had us 8th after match-day 20th. I predicted this would be the most likely scenario.
Medium case: Win 8, draw 4, lose 4. This scenario we would would enter game week 21 on 31 points, which would be enough for 6th at the same point last year.
Best case: Win 9, draw 4, lose 4. This scenario sees us on 33 points, enough for 5th after 20 games last season.
Reality: We won 7, drew 3 and lost 6 of our last 16 PL games up to match-day 20. We enter game-week 21 on 28 points, in 10th place in the PL. This is only one point behind my most likely prediction.
So, we’re not far off where I expected in terms of points. We’re a couple of places lower than where I expected, but in terms of points just about where I expected.
I also made some predictions for the rest of the season, based on goals I expected us to score, about how many points we’d get, and where we’d finish. Based on the first half of the season, I’m going to amend those now. I’m still going to factor in Chelsea potentially signing a striker in the January window and them getting a few goals, as I still think that’s highly likely.
So here’s some predictions in terms of goals scored:
Christopher Nkunku:
8 goals, 6 assists
Cole Palmer:
8 goals, 6 assists
Raheem Sterling:
5 goals, 4 assists
Nicolas Jackson:
6 goals, 2 assists
New Striker (if we sign one):
8 goals, 3 assists
Mykhailo Mudryk:
5 goals, 3 assists
Midfield:
5 goals
Defence:
5 goals
So as you can see, I’m predicting we’ll score about 50 goals in the second half of the season, and if Madueke and Broja stay and gets a few, even if we don’t sign a striker I think we’ll score more than the first half of the season.
The two keys for us in the second half of the season, will be improving our defending, and adding a proper goalscorer. If we can do that, then there’s a good chance we’ll get more points in the final 18 PL games of of the season than the first 20 games.
In all competitions Chelsea have won 12 out of 24 games this season in all competitions, if we can keep that ratio - or even increase it - in the second half of the season, then in the PL I think there’s one of three outcomes:
Worst case scenario: 7 wins, 7 defeats, 4 draws - Chelsea finish on 53 points (10th last season)
Medium case scenario: 8/9 wins, 6 defeats, 4/5 draws - Chelsea finish on 57-59 points (9th place last season - most likely scenario for me)
Best case scenario: 10 wins, 4 defeats, 4 draws - Chelsea finish on 62 points (6th place last season)
So my season prediction based on all this, is we’ll finish somewhere between 6th and 10th. Given we are currently only a few points behind 7th place, I think its entirely possible we could finish in that position, which would mean Conference League football.
Of course, we could win the league cup too. We have a very favourable semi-final draw against Middlesbrough, so I realistically expect us to reach the final. We’ll likely play Liverpool in that game, and we’ve been excellent against top sides this year and in big games, so we’d have every chance. Winning the league cup, apart from being a trophy, would mean we’d qualify for the Europa league for next season.
So there’s still a lot to play for this year, and coming off back to back wins and 4 wins in 5 (including the penalty shootout win v Newcastle), we’re quietly starting to build some momentum. With some winnable fixtures right ahead of us, and a transfer window to come, there’s some seeds for genuine optimism.
Despite everything that’s happened, and all the negativity, this could still end up as a positive season for Chelsea.
The Score
Good article but winning the league Cup gets conference league not europa
Great predictions on first half of season..... fair play. Love your articles👍👍