Another defeat, another Chelsea twitter meltdown. Chelsea losing a game is easier to deal with than the inevitable crash out on social media. I’ll be honest, thats one of the reasons I’m falling out of love with football. Its not fun even when we win games, people find something to moan about, or concerns to raise. Its exhausting.
On Monday I saw Dan McCarthy, a great guy, proper fan, hugely knowledgable, and whose opinion I hugely respect, tweet that Xabi Alonso is “winging it” as Chelsea manager. Another commentator said Alonso needs to “turn it around”, as if we’re in mid table or bottom half of the league.
We’re 5th in the PL, only two points off 4th place, on track for 62-63 points (which would have got 5th last year), without 4 key players (Joao Pedro, Reece James, Josh Acheampong and Maxcene Lacroix). Chances are we will improve over the season, and when key players are back, and we sign Alex Scott, we’ll also have more quality, There’s a good chance we end up with between 67-70 points by May, comfortably enough for top 4.
I respect Dan, but I wholeheartedly disagree with his “winging it” comment, I personally think that’s way too harsh. But its tame compared to some of the absolute nonsense I’m seeing from our more toxic fans (of which Dan is NOT one).
Not to say Xabi Alonso hasn’t made some mistakes. He has, for sure, and it’s fine to admit that. Some team selections, subs and tactics in certain games have been poor or wrong.
But to go to the lengths to argue he is just winging it, as if he hasn’t got a clue what he’s doing, given his track record, makes no sense to me. But again, that’s at least a rational comment, some toxic fans are saying Xabi’s success as a coach was down to others, that it was a fluke, and that Liam Rosenior, Graham Potter and Eddie Howe are better managers. I wish I was joking but I’m not.
And although we’ve not been consistent yet, we’re still very much around where I expected us to be, in and around the Champions League places.
In terms of coaching, here are some facts, based on real data:
The defence is improving.
Whatever people say, all stats confirm this. In our first five PL games this season we conceded 12 goals, in our last five, we’ve only conceded 4 goals. Our XG goals against has gone down from 2.25 up to Brentford, to 1.14, it’s literally halved.
We’ve also only conceded one goal from open play in the last 5 PL games - two penalties (one not even a penalty), two from corners, and the one from open play, we were down to 10 men and throwing the kitchen sink at the game at 1-0 down. Indeed one of the goals was down to an individual error, nothing tactical. If you include the league cup against Liverpool, it’s one conceded in open play in 6 games. That’s a clear result of good coaching and a better tactical set up, a massive improvement from previously, and even more from last season.
We’re outrunning most of our opponents
Last season we only outran an opponent once all season. It was a huge issue everyone was concerned about, and it’s an important stat to achieving success. This season, we’ve outrun our opponents in 7 of our 10 PL games, including against Sunderland. Again, a significant improvement, which is clearly down to coaching (and shows an improvement in mentality).
Possession stats are improving
In the last 5 PL games we’ve averaged 52% possession, a significant improvement from the first 5 games. That 52% includes only 31% v Spurs, so chances are our overall average is actually higher. This was a concern for some fans, and that’s clearly improving. Ironically the two games we’ve had the most possession this season, we lost.
Tactical Flexibility - Ditching 3 ATB
Up to the Brentford game Xabi seemed wedded to the 3 ATB system he used at Leverkusen. However, since then we’ve largely played a 4 at the back system, switching to 3 when attacking with Josh Acheampong playing a RB role. He’s played 4-3-3, and 4-2-3-1, so he’s shown he’s willing to adapt his system to suit his players. He shifted Levi Colwill from a wider LCB position to a more central role. Oh and on Levi, because he’s had a poor season so far, its important to remember he is still only 4 months coming back from an ACL. Generally, medical opinion suggests it takes 6 months from resuming training for a player to return to previous levels after an ACL, so we shouldn’t expect Levi to be back to his old levels till January, in my view.
So there HAVE been some positives and evidence Xabi is trying to improve specific areas of the pitch. He’s been adaptable and pragmatic, and he’s still learning about his squad. Injuries haven’t helped either, missing so many key players can really hinder a teams development.
My view is maybe it’s time to look at some of the players who’ve pulled this bozo no-show nonsense under multiple managers, including maybe some players we love.
Maybe also look at the poor squad building which we’re still recovering from. By the end of the next summer window, we need Wes Fofana, Malo Gusto, Jamie Gittens all out of the squad. If Xabi doesn’t see Welbeck or Emegha as a PL starter, we need to sign a legitimate backup striker for Joao Pedro (Brobbey wouldn’t be a bad shout there). Nicholas Jackson would never have accepted that role, so no point saying we should have kept him. We also need a commanding, elite centre back with height and power who won’t be bullied. We need two midfielders (we need an alternative if Caicedo is injured, as well as an Alex Scott), and probably another wide left attacker.
Until then, our depth options in some areas are going to be limited. We currently have 4 key players injured, and for 3 of those, we don’t have a legitimate backup of the same or similar quality. Any manager would struggle with this, even with one game per week
Also remember Xabi came in off the back of 4 months of relegation form. We were 18th in the form table from February, 19th in our last 11 games last year with 7 points. This is worse than Man Utd are now, which is really saying something, for about half a season. This breeds low or fragile confidence, and bad habits which take time to shake.
Then there’s what I can only call a bozo mentality, where against some teams we think we can turn up and win. I’ve seen this for years now under 3-4 managers. Some games we just turn up, think we can win easily, drop our energy levels, don’t run enough and we often end up losing or drawing. We follow up a big win with a bozo game. It happens so often and it annoys the hell out of me.
That’s not a coaching thing, its a psychological / character / cultural issue and it clearly can’t be fixed overnight. Sometimes, honestly, these players need a strong kick up the backside.
The fans who think Graham Potter, Liam Rosenior and Eddie Howe are better coaches than Xabi Alonso, deserve one of those three as Chelsea manager. Because putting it bluntly, the reactionary toxic fans who demand manager changes every 10 seconds or turn on managers quickly don’t deserve an elite manager. They’d turn on any manager, regardless of who they are.
I’m honestly done excusing these toxic fans. They just want their dopamine hit of Chelsea winning every game with perfect subs and perfect possession and a perfect performance, and if they don’t get it, they have a meltdown like an addict not getting their fix. So they want their shiny new toy to feel better. Like a spoiled little rich kid.
This ruins it for the real fans - like Si, Dan, and the vast majority in this community - who whilst they might have concerns about Xabi Alonso, don’t demand managerial sackings after only 2-3 months with the team in 5th place, or compare him to two of our worst managers in 30 years.
There are some fans who begged for Alonso, said they wanted stability at manager level with an elite manager, who as soon as he has gone through a tough period, have suddenly said he’s an awful coach. They’ve decided his success elsewhere was luck or down to someone else, and the next shiny new toy is wanted. Its just ridiculous at this point and I’m done excusing it.
Cesc Fabregas, who these people seem to have anointed as the new messiah, won 5 league games in his first 6 months at Como. It took him two years to get Como playing as they are now. I know for a fact our fans would never stand for that. People think he’d come in and we’d suddenly not have games like yesterday at all, or bad runs of form, or he’d not make mistakes, and we’d be playing perfect Cesc ball in weeks and win almost every game with perfect football? If they do, then they’re very naive.
People also argue they’d back Cesc and give him time as he is a Chelsea legend, because he “gets the club”. Well when Frank Lampard, arguably our greatest ever player, was permanent manager in 2019-2021 our own fans were posting “Fatpard” graphics all over twitter, and multiple “Lampard Out” posts, criticising him harshly, near enough abusing him, and freely disrespecting him. So that’s complete nonsense too. Club legends don’t get any more time than anyone else with the toxic fans.
Trust me, if we keep doing this to managers, we’ll end up like Man Utd, in the relegation zone a mess of a club, with no chance of major success for many years, and those toxic fans will absolutely deserve it. They will have no right to complain and I’ll feel no sympathy. I’ll feel sympathy for the real fans, who want Chelsea to succeed and don’t turn on managers so quickly.
In my personal view, if we sack Alonso at any point in his first two seasons (bar literal relegation form over several months of course), we’re finished as a big club for a long time. It would take Pep or Sir Alex 2-3 years to get it right here. We’re up there with Man Utd as one of the toughest clubs to manage, and that is partly to do with the toxic elements of the fanbase. Our managers get judged not just on results, but on performances, subs, and even comments in press conferences, which is just absurd, honestly.
There’s no coach we can realistically get who is better (there aren’t many better), and we’d potentially end up with Eddie Howe (which I assume those who think he’s better than Alonso would be happy about). I mean why would Cesc come here when our fans would turn on him after 3 months? But whoever it is, even Luis Enrique, they would be wanted out as soon as they lose some games or makes some mistakes.
Toxic fans have proven they just can’t wade through the shit to get to success, it’s that simple, they’ve proven it time and again, and I’ve had enough of it. I’ve seen us win it all, and football itself isn’t the same as 15-20 years ago.
As I said earlier, it’s not fun even when we win now, people always find something to moan about, people soon stop celebrating and make new demands, and it just makes it heavy and depressing even when we win. Achievements are belittled as soon as we hit a bad patch, people find random stats to slate the manager or raise concerns (watch for them in the next two weeks, as regular as clockwork).
The whole thing is literally rinse and repeat every year, I’ve seen it so many times now, and we never learn. It’s like watching the same movie over and over again, just with a different actor in the lead. Every season, every manager. Without fail.
The most recent seasons where we changed managers mid season, 2022/23 and last season, we finished 12th and 10th respectively. I remember last season most people said they wanted an end to hiring and firing managers, most fans wanted, some demanded, Xabi Alonso. Now, some who demanded him are already turning on him and want him out. Even Mauricio Pochettino eventually got it right in the last few months of his season, then we turfed him out and started over. Every new manager, we start from scratch again, and it sets us back another year or two. If that’s what fans want, then lower expectations, because it means the club will get nowhere fast.
The circus is as much in the toxic parts of our fanbase as elsewhere. I totally get why other fanbases hate us, its not jealousy at all. No fanbase shits on their own players and manager as much as we do. Support, in my eyes anyway, is cheering loudly even in the tough times, going through tough times together, giving positive energy to the players during games. If people want to boo, my view is we should do it after the game has finished. Of course people can do what they like, but that’s my personal view.
Xabi Alonso isn’t some unproven project manager like Potter or Rosenior, he’s proven how good he is, he inherited an absolute mess, so give him time to sort it out. Or we can just forget any ambitions of winning titles again.
Xabi won the Bundesliga and German Cup unbeaten and got to a European final with Bayer Leverkusen, on a net spend of £17m, and an overall spend of £75m in a league dominated by Bayern Munich, who outspend everyone else in Germany by miles. He followed this up with a runners up spot on 84 points. They’ve not been as good since he left. That success was not an accident, it was exceptional coaching.
People are free to disagree with me, that’s their right. I can’t and won’t tell any fan what to think or what to do, I can only say what I think and what I’d do. This is just my opinion as a fan of over 40 years, who loves this club and wants success desperately. I’m sure no one will take much notice of what I think anyway, to be honest.
I’m just exhausted with the same routine, the same stuff, rinse and repeat every year with every manager. If fans don’t think this would happen with Luis Enrique, or Pep Guardiola, or Jurgen Klopp, they’re just being naive, it absolutely would.
One bad run and they’d be called a fraud, their previous achievements would be belittled, and fans would demand them gone. If they can do it with Xabi Alonso, they’d do it with anyone. And its a one way ticket to underachievement and failure - its not remotely the actions of people serious about success, whether that’s owners who make decisions, or toxic fans who demand them.
It’s not even about blindly backing Alonso for me, it’s simply that at some point we have to give a manager - any manager we hire, whoever they are - at least two years to build something, accepting these bad runs of form, bad subs, and mistakes will be part of that journey. Otherwise it’s a complete waste of time even appointing a top manager, we may as well just appoint some mid table manager and settle for being a 6th place team.
The good thing is unless we hit serious relegation form over 3-4 months, Xabi Alonso isn’t going anywhere - and nor should he. Even if we finish 6th this year, stick with him and back him, because there’s no one better out there and we’d be starting from scratch again. Give him two years at least, and see where we are. I’m pretty confient by then we’ll be better, more consistent, and in the top 3 of the PL comfortably, and most likely have won a trophy or two.
I could be wrong on Alonso of course, and if I am I’ll hold my hands up and admit it. But I’m not changing my tune on the manager right now - even if we end up 6th. He’s the best we’re going to get for some time, and if we don’t give him time, chances are we won’t get an elite manager again for a while.
If we can’t be patient with Xabi (and Lampard a few years ago), quite frankly we can’t be patient with anyone - and it’s Chelsea and the fans who will suffer the consequences of impatience.
The Score