The Ownerships' plan is starting to bear fruit

We're making huge progress & are close to being real challengers...next season.

Chelsea are in our best form for 3 years. The last time we were this good, Thomas Tuchel was in charge and only two players from our current squad - Reece James and Marcus Betenelli - were in the first team squad at Chelsea.

We’ve played 16 PL games at time of writing. After 16 PL games last season, Chelsea were 12th with 19 points under Maurcio Pochettino. We’re currently 2nd with 34 points.

How things can change so quickly.

The comeback win against Spurs last week was the first time we’ve come back from 2 goals down to win in the Premier League since April 2018 v Southampton, when Antonio Conte was our head coach. We just beat Brentford at Stamford Bridge for the first time since their promotion, and it follows a pattern, as we’ve won a few bogey fixtures, like Wolves away, West Ham away, and Aston Villa at home this season.

At the start of the season, I predicted we’d be around 5th or 6th at Christmas, and finish between 3rd and 5th, most likely 4th.

At the time, this prediction, based on data from our form since December 2023, was deemed by many fans to be overly optimistic.

Now it seems quite conservative.

I’m not going to get carried away, I still think we need to improve, but it's very clear this team is developing very well and improving both mentally and in terms of performance, under the tutelage of head coach Enzo Maresca. As demonstrated against Spurs, this squad doesn’t just have talent, it has character and an elite mentality. Even at 2-0 down away in a big game, they didn’t give up. They fought back to take a 4-2 lead, and it could have been more.

We have a head coach in Enzo Maresca who has made a genuine effort to connect with the fans, always coming to the fans after every game, expressing passion on the touchline and showing he understands the expectations of the fans and the club.

He’s also the best tactical coach we’ve had since Thomas Tuchel (now England manager). He’s tactically innovative and flexible, whilst at the same time having a clear tactical identity and football philosophy. He seems to have the man management skills of Carlo Ancelotti and has got the whole squad behind him and buying into his methods, and his winning mentality.

Some of the young talent on loan or set to join next summer - Estevao Willian, Andrey Santos especially - are performing very well and look ready to come into our squad. We’re also hearing on this site (despite denials elsewhere), the key areas of the pitch which need addressing, an elite CB, GK and competition up front for Nicolas Jackson - are set to be addressed in the next two transfer windows.

People are now saying we’re in a title race. Enzo Maresca and the players are all keen to play this down, rightly, in my view.

I have complete faith in this squad, but for me it isn’t quite experienced enough and requires some minor tweaks before we’re ready to seriously challenge. However, we are now, I believe, a strong top 4 team, and could realistically finish 3rd or 2nd if things continue to go this well.

I consistently backed the ownership whilst this team was being built over the last two seasons. I’ve been harder on the sporting directors at times, fairly I think. They have made mistakes for sure, some players who have moved on, some we overpaid for, some poor signings, not signing some experience, but overall, they and Joe Shields deserve a lot of credit for putting us in a very strong position. Indeed their decision to replace Mauricio Pochettino with Enzo Maresca now looks inspired.

Chelsea have spent £1.3 billion on players since the new owners came in. Of those, these signings, I think have either worked out, are showing promise or look to be promising talents:

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Felipe Jorgensen £21m

Mike Penders £17m

Djorde Petrovic £14m

Malo Gusto £26m

Wesley Fofana £69m

Benoit Badiashile £32m

Marc Cucurella £62m

Renato Veiga £14m

Aaron Anselmino £17m

Enzo Fernandez £106m

Moises Caicedo £115m

Romeo Lavia £58m

Andrey Santos £12m

Cole Palmer £42m

Noni Madueke £34m

Christopher Nkunku £53m

Pedro Neto £54m

Mykhailo Mudryk £62m (initial)

Joao Felix £40m

Jadon Sancho (loan, £20m obligation)

Estevao Willian £29m (initial)

Nicolas Jackson £30m

Total cost: £945m (out of £1.3billion spent)

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So the vast majority of what we’ve spent, looks to have been spent well. I place Mudryk in that list because he’s performed well this season and contributed in terms of goals and assists. Even if he’s moved on, he can’t be labelled a “flop” anymore in my view.

I’d also add, we’ve brought in £443m in sales since the new owners came in, with likely more sales to come in the January 2025 window, so our net spend is near enough the cost of the players currently in our squad. Our wage bill has gone from about £340m two years ago, to about £150-160m now. So our overall costs are down, but our squad has been, with 2-3 exceptions, successively rebuilt.

The success of our striker targets John Duran and Samuel Omorodion at their respective clubs this season only adds to the sense our scouting and recruitment team know exactly what they’re doing. Even when they have failures, they’re relatively quick to identify them - and if what Simon is true and we’re looking at GK’s and CBs right now, shows again they’ve done that.

The plan from the ownership and sporting directors was to invest in top young talent for now and the future, and let them develop together as a young team, with more top young talent coming in behind them. And its clear it’s starting to bear fruit.

I argued last year, it was always going to take some time for the players to bed in, develop and become a team, and we’d be inconsistent in the meantime. That seems to have been the case.

Given the sheer player turnover and the creation of a new club structure almost from scratch by the ownership, a (very) painful transitional period was perhaps inevitable.

The owners were collectively and indivdually mocked and the club labelled chaotic, but there was always method in the alleged madness. Yes, they made some poor decisions, but as I said back, owners new to football will make mistakes. The key is they clearly learned from these mistakes and have made better decisions. I’ve been labelled all sorts of things for defending their long term plan, which I outlined many times on this site, but we can start to see now, the plan is now beginning to come together.

There’s no doubt in my mind, given the age of the squad and the players still to come in, the best is yet to come from this squad. And again, the age of the squad means as this team develops and peaks together, their peak could be sustained for 6-7 years.

Of course, in those 6-7 years we’ll be continuing to scout and recruit all the top young talent coming in behind them, and adding to the squad where we need to and naturally replacing any who move on. This will mean we can have sustained success without constant big investment or a massive rebuild. The squad will simply evolve.

Not to mention it leads to sustained off field success as major companies invest in the club, you get big commercial deals, as well as the Champions League and prize money success can bring.

This is where Chelsea are heading in the next 10 years, and it was always the plan of the ownership to do this. These allegations that they had no ambition, wanted to destroy the club, wreck the entire academy for short term gain, were always laughable fictions.

Both Todd Boehly and Clearlake have always maintained the greatest financial and commercial benefits of ownership are achieved by having a consistently winning team on the field, achieving sustained on-field success, which has the knock on effect of bringing in high revenues off the pitch. We’ll likely start to see that knock on effect in the next year or two.

Many fans doubted the model Todd Boehly and Clearlake put in place, but the both they and the Sporting Directors, and Joe Shields too, deserve credit for sticking with it despite a lot of pressure from outside, for recruiting well overall, and for the now very smart decision to bring in Enzo Maresca. That patience and those decisions are clearly beginning to bear fruit and deliver positively for Chelsea.

The owners also deserve credit for overhauling the medical department, as injuries are now way down from the last few years. In fact the overall sporting, scouting and recruitment structure of the club is now as strong as its ever been, and we are starting to have some stability there and in the squad.

One of the best forms of flattery is imitation, and we’re seeing this at other clubs. FSG/Liverpool hired Michael Edwards in a role identical to the one we offered him, and are planning to buy a feeder club to sign and develop the best young talent, and Manchester United are now looking to recruit top young talent for lower fees to rebuild their squad. Elements of our model are being copied at other top clubs.

There’s still a long way to go and we’re nowhere near our peak yet. I’m maintaining we won’t win the league this season (24/25), and aren’t quite ready to do so. But we’re almost certain to achieve Champions League qualification and I fancy us strongly to win the Conference League, which will be significant progress for this team. But overall, we are close to having a team that will challenge for and win the PL and other major trophies in coming seasons.

The long-term plan is beginning to deliver, and in my view, it looks increasingly like we’re in for a period of sustained success in the next 5-10 years.

Time will tell. But it’s looking good.

The Score