Reviewing Pochettino: Should he stay or go?

Pochettino is being assessed by the owners and sporting directors next week. Here I do my own assessment....

So we know Mauricio Pochettino is going under review as early as next Monday. He will meet with the the owners and sporting directors to review the season and make a decision on his future.

With two games to go, we're almost certain to finish 7th. Even if we lose both games, which is unlikely, Man Utd would need to overtake us on points as our goal difference is 15 better, and given their recent form and ours, both situations are unlikely. This means that provided Man City win the cup (and I can't see Man Utd beating them), we will have European football next year - if we can get into 6th, we could even have Europa league (which would be by far the better option).

As such, I thought I'd do my own, objective assessment, based on the criteria he owners are reported to to be using next week. Then we can see if on balance, not only does Pochettino deserve to stay, but do his plans fit with the boards?

I'm making some assumptions here - such as Conor Gallagher being available for sale to comply with PSR, and Trev potentially leaving too. Not my decisions, but ones we know the sporting directors have in their mind.

They want to assess, in David Ornstein's words, his "full body of work over the season", which is completely fair in my view, so that’s what I’ll be doing. No recency bias, no forgetting the negative issues or minimising them due to the passing of time.

I’m going to be as comprehensive as possible, and objective as possible, using evidence available.

1) Form until December

Chelsea were 11th in early December. Despite some encouraging results and performances against Arsenal and Manchester City at home, on points per game we had at that point, about 15-16 PL games in, we were on for only 48 points this season. This, of course, is below any kind of standard for Chelsea, even at our worst, being 11th after 15 games isn’t good enough.

This inconsistent form saw us lose games to Nottingham Forest at home, a thrashing by Newcastle away, and an abysmal performance against both Aston Villa at home and Man Utd away.

We made progress in the league cup, which was positive, but league form was simply not good enough. Even taking into account some of the injuries, 11th was too low for this squad.

2) Cup progress

This has been positive this year. We've beaten some good teams in the cups - Brighton, Newcastle, and Aston Villa, the latter in particular being one of our best performances of the season, and reached a final and semi final, both of which we narrowly lost.

This is progress from last year, when we made no progress in the cups at all. Obviously you’d ideally win the final - and we should have - but to get to a final and semi final after no progress last year, is still improvement.

3) Tactical work / in game management

In pre-season and even early season, there was a clear style of play being shown consistently, but this disappeared for most of the season, select games against top sides apart, until the last month.

Between October and early April there was, a few games apart, no clear identity on the pitch, no patterns of play, no defensive structure or organisation. The defending overall has been poor, with statistically our worst goals conceded in the PL for 30 years. In game management was also poor for a lot of the season, sometimes even costing us points.

However in recent weeks there has been a clear improvement in these areas, with more clear tactical work, playing style and better structure to the team, and this seems to be consistent. In game management has also improved in the last few weeks.

It should also be noted we have scored 99 goals in 49 games in all competitions this season (with two games to go), having scored 50 goals in 50 games last season. This is of course a clear improvement, particularly given injuries to Christopher Nkunku and the lack of an elite, proven striker.

4) Team spirit / mentality

There's been a very definitive improvement in this area all season. We've gained 19 points from losing positions overall, and come from behind to win 5 times (both pre the last two games), which shows developing character and team spirit, and a better mentality. Last season, this happened only once.

This improvement in mentality and team spirit, usually comes from the manager, and Pochettino deserves massive credit for this. It should also be noted the entire squad has remained fully behind Pochettino all season regardless of results, another thing not to be taken lightly at Chelsea or any club.

5) Player development

Several players have shown improvement over the season. Nicolas Jackson, Malo Gusto, Conor Gallagher, Moises Caicedo, Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer for example have all clearly been positively impacted by Pochettino's coaching.

There's also a good argument Mudryk has also improved to a certain extent. This again shows the quality of Pochettino's coaching and ability to improve players.

6) Improvement since Christmas

Since Christmas, Chelsea have been 4th in the PL form table, with a points per game average of 1.70, which over a 38 game season would see Chelsea reach 69 points and challenge for top 4 (the fourth placed team, Aston Villa, has got CL football with 68 points, with a game to go).

This form has been consistent since even before Christmas, in the last 21 PL games and in the cups too, which demonstrates clear and consistent improvement. You’d expect this development and improvement to continue into next season too, especially given Pochettino’s record for improving players.

7) Injuries

This has been a serious problem all season, with, at 54, Chelsea having the highest number of injuries in the PL for the second successive season. It should be recognised several injuries occurred during international duty or through the actions of other players, and that maybe the training pitches at Cobham need relaying.

However, despite this, it’s also true that a high number of injuries occurred during training sessions, and several players had further long setbacks after returning from injury. That’s more the responsibility of the manager, especially one who has a track record of overworking players and playing players still in the red zone, injury wise.

This suggests that the coaching methods or decisions made to bring players back early from coaching staff can at least be held partially responsible for the injury situation.

It should be stated however, injuries in early season to Christopher Nkunku, Wesley Fofana and Reece James, all of which impacted our season, were not due to these reasons and happened independently of training or the manager.

8) Fan connection

Fan reception to the manager at the ground hasn't been too much of an issue, things haven’t become toxic apart from a couple of isolated incidents. On Twitter its generally been much more toxic with a large proportion of online fans wanting Pochettino removed, for a long time.

There's been complaints (including from myself), largely on social media, that Pochettino has not made enough of an effort to connect with the fanbase and has made several patronising comments towards or about fans. This remains true, despite those comments being cut out in recent weeks.

To achieve long term success at Chelsea, this would HAVE to improve on all sides next season, including Pochettino's side. No manager can succeed at Chelsea without emotional buy in and connection from fans, and Pochettino HAS to work on this if he’s going to have a long term future here.

There is concern amongst a lot of fans I speak to that Pochettino might never truly win over the fanbase. We’ve seen how any one off bad result brings about the old concerns and anger directed at Pochettino and his coaching. Fans have less connection, and already had some frustrations with Poch, so there is far less patience or tolerance for bad results. It may ultimately be an impossible job for him to win fans over.

9) Transfer strategy / fit with project

As has been confirmed in various places, Pochettino has not got literally any of the players he asked for. He asked for more proven players and leaders, and did not get any. Its been abundantly clear from early on the squad has lacked good experience and leadership, and Pochettino has shown should be at least listened to in this area.

Conor Gallagher and Trevoh Chalobah have proven beyond doubt they should be kept at Chelsea. However the sporting directors are likely to disagree with the latter point to the extent that they need to be sold for PSR reasons. There could be some relaxing of the U25 rule, but it remains to be seen if Pochettino will be backed more in this upcoming window.

In terms of the project, the structure is the sporting directors & scouts oversee most of the recruitment and team building, with head coaching having some but not much direct influence. It’s been reported how its’ very unlikely Pochettino will want to continue this way, given he has a very difficult relationship with the sporting directors, and his relationship with the owners is said to have been strained for months.

This area in particular could be the key sticking point in deciding Pochettino's future, even more than results. Ironically, its’ one area many fans would probably agree with Poch (including myself). Whether the owners and sporting directors do, is another matter entirely.

In a way this goes beyond results, because its about the whole structure of the football club and transfer strategy going forward, long term. Whoever is in charge will HAVE to be on board with this, and fit into our structure, because it doesn’t look like it’s changing. David Ornstein has alluded to this also in some recent comments.

So what’s the asesssment?

OK, so I’ve briefly presented all the evidence in the areas I think the directors and owners will cover. What’s my own assessment on Pochettino and his future - and what do I think the club will do?

My view:

Based on the above, we’ve made a lot of clear progress this year in many areas. Players have improved, tactically we’ve improved, and Poch has built a good team spirit and character in the squad. Foundations have clearly been laid and we have some positive momentum.

There's clearly areas Pochettino needs to work on and improve, as mentioned above, but overall, not enough to sack him right now, in particular when there's a lack of genuine upgrade managers available, in my view.

He also, in my view, deserves to be listened to more in recruitment and in which players to keep, and in terms of signing proven players with leadership qualities. There needs to be mild compromise on both sides so they can work together long term.

Owners and Sporting Directors:

In my view, the perspective of the sporting directors and owners will likely be very different from my own. They have their strategy and they’re unlikely to change it much.

I also doubt they change their football structure to accommodate anyone, especially a manager co-owner Behdad Eghbali wanted to sack in February and has wanted to at least once since. The sporting directors are seen to have done a good job and their authority isn’t in question right now (which is ridiculous to me), so their jobs aren’t at risk whatever happens.

Taking everything into account, I personally think it's unlikely the owners and sporting directors are willing to compromise enough to satisfy Pochettino, and I doubt he will compromise enough, if at all, for them given their strained relationship.

Todd Boehly will probably fight to keep Pochettino again, but Behdad Eghbali has wanted him sacked more than once this season, so will likely take a lot more convincing to keep him this time. As I said earlier, Pochettino is not on the best terms with either the owners or the sporting directors either - although in my view, if Pochettino is in trouble, the sporting directors should be, given they hired him in the first place.

Overall, I think the realistic outcome, regardless of results till the end of the season, we be a mutual parting. He won't be sacked, and won't resign, they will simply agree to part ways amicably and respectfully.

I personally think letting him go would be, on balance, the wrong decision. The club could do with some stability and as I've said, there's no obvious replacement, not to mention there's clear signs of progress and the players love him.

But ultimately this decision is not up to me, and the owners and directors will have to own whatever decision they make and its impact.

So lets’ see what happens.

The Score