How is Mauricio Pochettino really doing?

A look at some stats to see the truth of Pochettino's reign so far

We’re at that time of a season again. January / February almost every year seems to be “manager under threat” season at Chelsea. We’ve had the ‘vote of confidence’ briefings, the “what Pochettino needs to do” briefings and David Ornstein being very non-committal about Poch’s long term future.

Many like me are desperate for us to stop being a hire and fire club. We want to see stability, a manager allowed to build and develop a team, and take it to success. Much like we’ve seen at Liverpool and Man City in recent years. I personally believe this is our only route back to sustained success at the elite level, and it will take time to get there, whoever is in charge.

The ownership have said all along they want to show patience with a manager. Graham Potter was pretty much forced out by the fans last season. Ironically even with his poor win percentage from 27 December 2022 to his sacking in April (34%) in comparison to Frank Lampard’s as temp (11%), we actually would have finished higher with more points had he kept his job till May, backing up the argument sacking him mid season was pointless and actually did damage.

Consensus on Twitter seems to be Pochettino is doing a bad job.

So lets examine this. First look at this graphic from about a year ago on winning percentages on Chelsea managers.

(Image Source: The Athletic - data accurate up to April 2023)

I think it’s fascinating the names and win percentages on there. Glenn Hoddle, who I has a low win percentage. Yet I think he has had a hugely significant and positive impact on Chelsea history (more on this in my previous article).

So how about current incumbent, the other Spurs ex, Mauricio Pochettino? Well, after 24 games (up to Luton away) the measure used for the graph above, his win % at Chelsea was 50%, winning 12 games out of 24 (including the penalty shootout win against Newcastle). Not including the shootout, his win % is 45.83 after 24 games.

Up to today, including the FA Cup win v Preston, league cup defeat v Middlesbrough away and the home win against Fulham, Pochettino has played 27 games and won 13, which is takes his win % up to 48.14.

In the Premier League alone, Pochettino has won 9 of 21 PL games, that’s a win percentage of 42.85.

For context, Frank Lampard, who attended the Fulham game, had an overall win % of 50 in his first 24 games in his first spell, and not far behind the late, great Gianluca Vialli after his first 24 games, which was 54%. It’s higher than Claudio Ranieri (46%) and Ruud Gullit (42%) in the same number of games - all managers who finished no lower than 6th, and all reached cup finals too - something Pochettino could still do.

Next up, lets look at some attacking stats, because he’s actually improved our goalscoring and overall attacking data - even without a world class striker.

Our goals per game is up from 1.00 per game in all comps last season to 1.66 per game in all comps this season. We’ve scored 45 goals in the 27 games up to Fulham at home, significantly up from last season when we only scored 50 goals in all comps. If we keep scoring at our current rate, our equivalent from 50 games would be 83 goals.

We’ve also improved in chance creation this season. This season we’re 5th in the PL for big chances created, with 44 big chances in 20 league games, 2.2 big chances per game. Last season we were 10th for big chances created, with only 1.5 chances per PL game.

So there’s clearly been improvement in terms of attack.

However it must be noted for balance, that our defence is considerably worse this season than last. Last season after 21 PL games we’d conceded only 21 goals, around 1 goal per game. This season it stands as 31 conceded, 1.40 conceded per game.

Like often in recent years, we seem to fix one end of the pitch, whilst weakening the other. This is something Pochettino needs to rectify quickly to keep his job long term.

However, back to the net positives. There’s one which goes beyond data. One thing I’ve noticed, which seems to be rarely reported, is Pochettino has definitely built a better group dynamic than we’ve had at the club for some time. Players like each other, play for each other, celebrate with each other. They’re young so heads can go down and they can lose confidence, and be inconsistent on the pitch. But I’ve never seen any signs of division in the camp, or toxicity as we’ve had in the past. This has been a MASSIVE problem at Chelsea for years and one thing Pochettino was hired to change. He definitely has achieved this and that will be a legacy he leaves when he eventually does depart.

That’s one more reason I’m confident the vast majority of the squad are still loyal to Pochettino. Though there were murmurs of 2-3 being concerned about tactics, I think in the main the players support him and always have. This is a big positive, and rare amongst Chelsea managers. Sacking a manager still loved by the vast majority of the squad mid-season creates a potential set of problems the club doesn’t need.

There is one final data metric I find interesting, and is linked to the above. Chelsea have come from behind to get a draw or a win 6 times this season already, nearly 25% of our games. 3 of those times we won the game, and 3 of those comebacks came against Man City (3 times in one game including Cole Palmer’s equaliser below), Liverpool and Spurs. We also came from behind to level in a few other games we ultimately lost, including Man Utd away.

Again, this character is something we’d rarely seen in the club in recent years. Last season I can barely think of one or two games we came from behind to get anything in a game. There is character in this team we’ve not seen before. Obviously given the youth and inexperience, we won’t always see us come back, but the fact we’ve done it 6 times half way through a season is positive. Again, this is something which will hopefully remain after Pochettino has eventually gone, and he deserves some credit for it.

In terms of the concerns about Pochettino, they are wide ranging. There’s people concerned about the team lacking clear patterns of play or a clear tactical identity, and I admit those are concerns for me too. His inability to get the best out of Enzo Fernandez so far is a concern many have, and I appreciate this argument too although I believe his injury and simple burnout have played their parts. That said, he’d be within his rights to be concerned about how he’s being used.

However, I still maintain Pochettino is not doing as bad a job as many think, in my view. To me, we’re seeing gradual but clear improvement in Mykhailo Mudryk, Malo Gusto, Noni Madueke, Conor Gallagher, Nicolas Jackson and others. Granted, I’m not a coach or coaching expert, so I can only guess he is currently focussing mainly on player development, not patterns of play, rightly or wrongly.

If Pochettino gets a 45.84 win percentage until the end of the season in the league (17 more games), then in the league that would amount to 7 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats, which would take us to 56 PL points. This could potentially take us to anywhere between 7th-9th depending on how the table comes together. Potentially European football, potentially to sacking.

If the 48.14% overall win percentage after 27 games is carried on till the end of the PL season, that would amount to 8 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats, which would take us to 57 points. That could land us around 7th or 8th, and potentially mean European football. It could also mean winning the league cup potentially though, another route into Europe.

However if his league win % of 42.85 carries on in the PL, he would win 7, draw 4 and lose 6, which would leave us with 55 points. That would probably see us finish 8th or 9th, maybe even 10th depending on others, all of which could easily result in his dismissal even if he won the league cup.

Of course, this prediction doesn’t factor in possible injury returns for Christopher Nkunku, Romeo Lavia and others, and potentially a striker signing. Those combined would be expected to improve the win percentage enough to turn at least one defeat into a draw, one defeat into a draw or win, and at least one draw into a win, at worst.

If that happened in any of our three baselines above, there’s a good chance Chelsea could end up in 7th place or even potentially 6th, both of which would mean European football. So there’s plenty of reason to hope.

The thing is, we don’t know what is going to happen right now and its tough to predict, even with this data there’s a lot of invariables in play, and this is one more reason why making a decision on Poch’s future at this particular moment seems a bit pointless.

I have no idea what the owners will do, but with recent “votes of confidence” type reports as mentioned above, it probably means there’s still a faint chance Poch will be sacked before the end of the season, and increases the odds he’ll be gone before next pre-season. To do the former, I think would be completely pointless. To me, regardless of the criticisms, we’re clearly better than last season, and a change mid-season isn’t going to save the season, the season hardly needs saving to be honest. A mid-season change didn’t work last year, and won’t now.

Not to mention sacking him before the season ends, sends a dangerous message out there. Outsiders will think Chelsea managers have a 6-8 month shelf life to prove themselves. That carries a risk, namely that any new manager will not care about player development, the academy or a philosophy, they’ll only care about instant results at the detriment of long term planning. This is something we need to move away from, not get worse at.

If a change were eventually to be made, it would be better to be made in the summer, and his departure maybe announced before the seasons end as a mutual parting, not a sacking. That looks better all round and gives more time for them to find a successor.

Regardless, even if Pochettino survives for now and leaves in the summer, its going to be tough for any potential employee o believe any line about them being a “long term manager” again. As my previous article outlined, the culture of the club, including fans, means no Chelsea manager should ever really be promised to be a long term manager at the beginning of their reign.

We have no idea what’s going to happen, the club are deliberately keeping things very close to their chest.

But as we know, with Chelsea, we should always expect the unexpected. Which could vary from finishing 9th/10th in the league with no trophy, to finishing 6th and winning the league cup.

You never know with Chelsea. Especially not this season.

The Score